With less than three days before the first kickoff, it's time to tell you which national teams will succeed this month in South Africa, which ones will crash, and which one will win it all.
In a competition like this, which starts with eight qualifying pools, I find this Sherlock Holmes quotation useful:
How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
Keep it in mind as I go through the groups.
Group A: Uruguay is just average, South Africa is just awful, and France is just a mess. That leaves Mexico,
a team I smacked two weeks ago, to win the group in shockingly easy fashion. The hosts will advance, too, thanks solely to the power of the mighty
vuvuzela. That's "mighty" as in, "That brass section that infests every Southern Cal football game is mighty annoying." France and Uruguay will prove no match for the tens of thousands of vuvuzelas blowing on Bafana Bafana's behalf.
- Through: Mexico, South Africa. Out: Uruguay, France (which doesn't even get a draw).
Group B: It's possible that temper-prone Diego Maradona could coach Argentina out of the tournament, but at the group stage, it's not likely. In the first place, the same could be said of Mexico's Javier Aguirre; more importantly, Barcelona star Lionel Messi won't let it happen. The rest of the group looks pretty even, but I think Nigeria squeaks past its defense-oriented rivals.
- Through: Argentina, Nigeria. Out: Greece, South Korea
Group C: Back when the draw happened in December, I thought that England and the U.S. were the obvious choices to advance. On further reflection, Slovenia may be tougher than I thought. With those three sides beating each other up, the stage win will come down to who can most comprehensively blow out luckless Algeria. That side might actually be the United States. Shockingly, it's England that crashes out -- done in by Slovenia, not the U.S.
- Through: United States, Slovenia. Out: England, Algeria
The other groups follow the fold.
