12 September 2009

Final 2008 NFL Standings with Victory Weighting

In Victory Weighting, teams are ranked by their Strength. If two teams have the same Strength, then the one with the higher overall winning percentage gets the higher rank.

With that in mind, let's see how the final 2008-9 NFL standings would have appeared under Victory Weighting. Playoff teams in these listings are preceded by their seed in parentheses.

NFC North
(3) Minnesota10-6-00-0400.625
Chicago 9-7-02-1350.538
Green Bay6-10-00-1260.375
Detroit 0-16-00-000.000

NFC South
(1) Carolina 12-4-00-1490.750
(5) Atlanta 11-5-01-0430.688
Tampa Bay 9-7-02-1350.538
New Orleans 8-8-00-1330.500

NFC East
(2) NY Giants 12-4-02-0460.750
(6) Philadelphia9-6-10-0380.594
Dallas 9-7-00-1370.538
Washington 8-8-00-0320.500

NFC West
(4) Arizona 9-7-01-0350.538
San Francisco7-9-01-0230.432
Seattle 4-12-00-1170.250
St. Louis 2-14-00-080.125

AFC North
(2) Pittsburgh12-4-01-0470.750
(6) Baltimore 11-5-00-1450.688
Cleveland 4-12-00-0160.250

AFC South
(1) Tennessee 13-3-01-0510.812
(5) Indianapolis12-4-00-0480.750
Houston 8-8-00-1330.500

AFC East
(3) New England11-5-00-1450.688
Miami 11-5-00-0440.688
NY Jets 9-7-01-1360.538
Buffalo 7-9-00-0280.432

AFC West
(4) San Diego8-8-00-0320.500
Kansas City2-14-00-190.125

Usually, Victory Weighting produces the same set of playoff teams as do traditional standings, but seed them differently. Here, Carolina would have earned the #1 NFC seed, and the Panthers would have hosted Philadelphia at the divisional playoff stage.  The New York Giants, the actual top seeds, would have fallen to #2, where they would have met surging Arizona.

Last season also provided a less common result:  it actually produced a different playoff field.  Miami completed its Cinderella run by winning the AFC East and hosting Baltimore in the wild-card round.  Under Victory Weighting, however, the Dolphins would have missed the playoffs altogether, and New England would have hosted the Ravens instead. The difference is that only the Patriots had a game go to overtime. The OT loss gave the Patriots an extra Strength point.

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