27 December 2011

Tuesday Football: Victory Weighting in Action, Week 17

The AFC West scenario generated by Victory Weighting this season got even more dramatic, thanks to the, um, re-humanization of Tim Tebow last Saturday in Buffalo. The most obvious evidence is reflected in the standings:

Official
AFC WestW-L
Denver8-7
Oakland8-7
San Diego7-8
Kansas City6-9
Victory Weighted
AFC WestStrengthW-L
Oakland318-7
San Diego307-8
Denver298-7
Kansas City246-9

In the official playoff scenario:

  • Oakland can still qualify as an AFC wild card (but Denver cannot).
  • San Diego is eliminated, because the Chargers would lose any tiebreaker with Oakland or Denver.
  • Denver wins the division with a win or tie, or an Oakland loss or tie.

Under Victory Weighting, though, the situation is far different, in large part because everyone in the NFL is engaged in divisional play this week.

  • Oakland could not qualify as a wild card, because it cannot match sixth-seeded Cincinnati's 36 Strength.
  • The San Diego-Oakland game would essentially function as a play-in game, with the winner capturing the AFC West. A tie favors the Raiders unless Denver wins in regulation.
  • Denver would qualify only with a regulation win and a Charger-Raider tie. Any other combination would eliminate the Broncos.

With Oakland removed from it, the Victory Weighted AFC wild-card race would also simplify. Cincinnati qualifies outright with even an overtime loss to Baltimore.

If the Bengals do lose in regulation, then Tennessee and the New York Jets become eligible with regulation wins.

  • Neither the Titans or Jets wins in regulation: Cincinnati advances outright.
  • Only the Titans win in regulation: The Bengals defeated the Titans, 24-17, in Week 9. Cincinnati advances.
  • Only the Jets win in regulation: The Bengals and Jets did not meet, but the Jets would have 28 Strength over AFC games, while the Bengals would have only 24. New York Jets advance.
  • Both the Titans and Jets win in regulation: The Bengals are eliminated with the lowest Strength over AFC games (24). The Titans and Jets, who did not meet this season, would each have 28 Strength (7-5) over AFC games. Then, the Titans win the common-opponent tiebreaker over the Jets. Tennessee advances.



1 comment:

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