23 November 2010

Tuesday Football: More Victory Weighting

If it's the fourth week of November, then Thanksgiving must be near. In the NFL, that means it's time for the playoff races to start taking form.  Here's where Victory Weighting begins to matter.

[Press the "Victory Weighting" button to see how my system works.  The "VW Standings" button takes you to the standings with the Victory Weighting rules in effect.]

Officially, the playoff projections look like this:
  • NFC byes:  Atlanta (8-2, South leader), Philadelphia (7-3, East leader)
  • NFC first-round hosts: Chicago (7-3, North leader), Seattle (5-5, West leader)
  • NFC wild cards: Green Bay (7-3), New Orleans (7-3)
  • Just outside the NFC picture:  Tampa Bay (7-3)
  • AFC byes:  New York Jets (8-2, East leader), Baltimore (7-3, North leader)
  • AFC first-round hosts: Kansas City (6-4, West leader), Jacksonville (6-4, South leader)
  • AFC wild cards: New England (8-2), Pittsburgh (7-3)
  • Just outside the AFC picture:  Indianapolis (6-4)
The official projection requires 9 tiebreakers:
  1. Divisional tiebreakers in the NFC Norh, AFC North, AFC South and AFC East (4)
  2. Qualfying tiebreakers:  Green Bay vs. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (2)
  3. Seeding tiebreakers:  Philadelphia vs. Chicago, Kansas City vs. Jacksonville, Green Bay vs. New Orleans (3)
By contrast, Victory Weighting yields an alternative playoff picture:
  • NFC byes:  Atlanta (Strength 32, South leader), Green Bay (Strength 30, North leader)
  • NFC first-round hosts:  Philadelphia (Strength 28, East leader), Seattle (Strength 20, West leader)
  • NFC wild cards:  New Orleans (Strength 29), Tampa Bay (Strength 28)
  • Just outside the NFC picture:  Chicago (Strength 28)
  • AFC byes:  New England (Strength 31, East leader), Baltimore (Strength 28, North leader)
  • AFC first-round hosts: Kansas City (Strength 24, West leader), Jacksonville (Strength 24, South leader)
  • AFC wild cards: New York Jets (Strength 30), Pittsburgh (Strength 27)
  • Just outside the AFC picture:  Indianapolis (Strength 24)
The applicable Victory Weighting tiebreakers are:
  1. Divisional tiebreaker:  Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
  2. Wild-card tiebreaker:  Tampa Bay vs. Chicago
  3. Seeding tiebreaker:  Kansas City vs. Jacksonville
That's right:  under VW, there are only three ties to break.  That's much easier, ¿no?

Fantasy update:  Boy, did my teams suck this week.

I didn't expect much from The Fluttering Horde (6-4), because Peyton Manning and the Patriot defense were supposed to cancel each other out.  Manning's three interceptions cost the Horde nothing, as the points simply moved from Manning to the Patriot defense.  Manning's three touchdowns were also worth less, since they transferred points from the Patriots' row to his.  Unfortunately, my running backs and tight ends -- including those riding my bench -- also canceled themselves.  Despite its sad 104-78 loss, the Horde is still in good shape to make the playoffs.

The Middlemen (6-5) now face a new problem:  they're too talented.  Yahoo! considers literally half the Middlemen roster so valuable that I can't cut them.  Without the flexibility to replace injured and/or struggling stars, I'm stuck with a team that's fading faster than Miles Austin.  After taking a 96-82 loss to The SDPackers, the Middlemen are barely hanging onto their playoff position.  I really, really need Antonio Gates to get healthy again.

No comments: