Victory Weighting: Live playoff blogging

Happy New Year! Today, I'm updating the playoff races as games end, using my Victory Weighting system.

14:53 CST:  The Jets defeat Buffalo, 38-7.  They finish at Strength 42 and 11-5, so they can still hope for a #5 seed.  For that to happen, Pittsburgh would have to lose in regulation.

15:03 CST:  While I'm waiting on another relevant game to go final, I should note that, under Victory Weighting, the St. Louis Rams would already be NFC West champions and a #4 seed.  Their 29 Strength is guaranteed to be the best in their division.  [Second-place Seattle could achieve, at best, Strength 28.]

Also, New England has had the AFC East and the AFC high seed locked up for a couple of weeks.

15:07 CST:  Chiefs 10-31 Raiders.  Kansas City finishes at Strength 40 and 10-6.  They would fall to a #4 seed if Indianapolis wins.

15:09 CST:  Baltimore and Pittsburgh both win in regulation.  Both teams finish at 12-4, but Baltimore would win the AFC North and the first-round bye with Strength 47.  Pittsburgh would get the #5 wild-card seed at Strength 46, leaving the New York Jets with the #6 spot.

Officially, Pittsburgh gets the division title and the bye.  Barring some odd results in New Orleans, Green Bay and Washington, D.C., this will be the only instance this year where the Victory Weighted playoff seeds deviate from the actual ones.  Oddly enough, this seems to happen every year with the Steelers and Ravens.

15:26 CST:  One of the only two questions left in the NFC gets two answers, but needed only one.  Atlanta beat Carolina, 31-10, clinching the NFC South title and the NFC high seed.  As a result, Chicago locks up the #2 seed (and the other first-round bye), while New Orleans wraps up the #5 seed (and a first-round trip to St. Louis).

15:35 CST:  Tampa Bay's 23-13 win at New Orleans leaves them at Strength 41 and 10-6, still alive for the last NFC playoff spot.  It also closes out the New York Giants, who could finish with, at best, Strength 40.

Consequently, Green Bay (currently Strength 38 and 9-6) must beat Chicago in regulation to reach the playoffs.  Even an overtime win would send Tampa Bay through instead.

18:06 CST:  Green Bay wins, 10-3.  With Strength 42, the 10-6 Packers take the last NFC playoff spot from Tampa Bay.  They open the playoffs at Philadelphia.

18:08 CST:  Jacksonville loses 34-14 at Houston.  The Jaguars bow out of playoff contention, handing the AFC South title to Indianapolis.

18:10 CST:  The Colts beat Tennessee, 23-20, on a last-second field goal.  Indianapolis takes the #3 AFC seed, and will host the Jets next week.  Kansas City slips to the #4 seed, to host Pittsburgh.

18:30 CST:  That's it.  Tonight's Rams-Seahawks game will decide the official NFC West champion, but has no bearing on the Victory Weighted playoff picture:

NFC First Round:  (6) Green Bay at (3) Philadelphia; (5) New Orleans at (4) St. Louis
AFC First Round:  (6) New York Jets at (3) Indianapolis; (5) Pittsburgh at (4) Kansas City
NFC Byes:  (1) Atlanta, (2) Chicago
AFC Byes:  (1) New England, (2) Baltimore

23:24 CST:  Whoops.  Seattle won the actual Sunday night game, and with it the NFC Oceania West title.  St. Louis goes home, so Victory Weighting would have made another correction.

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Tuesday Football: More Victory Weighting

If it's the fourth week of November, then Thanksgiving must be near. In the NFL, that means it's time for the playoff races to start taking form.  Here's where Victory Weighting begins to matter.

[Press the "Victory Weighting" button to see how my system works.  The "VW Standings" button takes you to the standings with the Victory Weighting rules in effect.]

Officially, the playoff projections look like this:

• NFC byes:  Atlanta (8-2, South leader), Philadelphia (7-3, East leader)
• NFC first-round hosts: Chicago (7-3, North leader), Seattle (5-5, West leader)
• NFC wild cards: Green Bay (7-3), New Orleans (7-3)
• Just outside the NFC picture:  Tampa Bay (7-3)

• AFC byes:  New York Jets (8-2, East leader), Baltimore (7-3, North leader)
• AFC first-round hosts: Kansas City (6-4, West leader), Jacksonville (6-4, South leader)
• AFC wild cards: New England (8-2), Pittsburgh (7-3)
• Just outside the AFC picture:  Indianapolis (6-4)

The official projection requires 9 tiebreakers:

1. Divisional tiebreakers in the NFC Norh, AFC North, AFC South and AFC East (4)
2. Qualfying tiebreakers:  Green Bay vs. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (2)
3. Seeding tiebreakers:  Philadelphia vs. Chicago, Kansas City vs. Jacksonville, Green Bay vs. New Orleans (3)

By contrast, Victory Weighting yields an alternative playoff picture:

• NFC byes:  Atlanta (Strength 32, South leader), Green Bay (Strength 30, North leader)
• NFC first-round hosts:  Philadelphia (Strength 28, East leader), Seattle (Strength 20, West leader)
• NFC wild cards:  New Orleans (Strength 29), Tampa Bay (Strength 28)
• Just outside the NFC picture:  Chicago (Strength 28)
  

• AFC byes:  New England (Strength 31, East leader), Baltimore (Strength 28, North leader)
• AFC first-round hosts: Kansas City (Strength 24, West leader), Jacksonville (Strength 24, South leader)
• AFC wild cards: New York Jets (Strength 30), Pittsburgh (Strength 27)
• Just outside the AFC picture:  Indianapolis (Strength 24)

The applicable Victory Weighting tiebreakers are:

1. Divisional tiebreaker:  Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
2. Wild-card tiebreaker:  Tampa Bay vs. Chicago
3. Seeding tiebreaker:  Kansas City vs. Jacksonville

That's right:  under VW, there are only three ties to break.  That's much easier, ¿no?

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Fantasy update:  Boy, did my teams suck this week.

I didn't expect much from The Fluttering Horde (6-4), because Peyton Manning and the Patriot defense were supposed to cancel each other out.  Manning's three interceptions cost the Horde nothing, as the points simply moved from Manning to the Patriot defense.  Manning's three touchdowns were also worth less, since they transferred points from the Patriots' row to his.  Unfortunately, my running backs and tight ends -- including those riding my bench -- also canceled themselves.  Despite its sad 104-78 loss, the Horde is still in good shape to make the playoffs.

The Middlemen (6-5) now face a new problem:  they're too talented.  Yahoo! considers literally half the Middlemen roster so valuable that I can't cut them.  Without the flexibility to replace injured and/or struggling stars, I'm stuck with a team that's fading faster than Miles Austin.  After taking a 96-82 loss to The SDPackers, the Middlemen are barely hanging onto their playoff position.  I really, really need Antonio Gates to get healthy again.